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LONDON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is likely done with policy tightening and will leave Bank Rate at 5.25% on Nov. 2, according to the vast majority of economists polled by Reuters who did however caution the chance of another increase this year was high. Only 12 economists forecast a quarter point rise to 5.50% at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Inflation was expected to gradually decline across the forecast horizon but it won't reach target until Q2 2025, the poll showed. Around one-third of economists expected the Bank to act earlier. The BoE was forecast to reduce Bank Rate by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter, putting it at 4.50% by year-end.
Persons: James Smith, Elizabeth Martins, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, BoE, ING's Smith, Jonathan Cable, Prerana Bhat, Sujith Pai, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Bank, ING, MPC, HSBC, United States Federal Reserve, European, Thomson
A pedestrian carrying an umbrella walks near the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, July 30, 2023. Market expectations for peak Bank Rate reached 6.5% on July 11 after data showed record wage growth before falling back to 5.75% after a sharp decline in consumer price inflation. Investors see a two-in-three chance of the BoE raising Bank Rate to 5.25% on Thursday but for most economists polled by Reuters the BoE's decision is finely balanced. However, some BoE critics argue it risks causing an unnecessary downturn, and that higher rates are a poor tool to tackle inflation caused by higher food and energy prices. "The main winners are banks, whose profits have flourished thanks to higher rates," said Fran Boait, co-executive director of campaign group Positive Money.
Persons: Hollie Adams, Bailey, BoE, Rishi Sunak, James Smith, Smith, Andrew Bailey, Dave Ramsden, Swati Dhingra, Silvana Tenreyro, Megan Greene, Fran Boait, ING's Smith, David Milliken, William Schomberg, Giles Elgood Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Mortgage, Investors, Reuters, ING, Kroll Institute, Monetary, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Germany
After adding 75 basis points to Bank Rate earlier this month the Monetary Policy Committee will add a more modest 50 basis points on Dec. 15, taking it to 3.50%, the Nov. 18-22 poll found. In an October poll, the rate was expected to end this year at 3.75%. Over 75% of respondents, 43 of 56, opted for 50 basis points while 13 said 75. Reuters Poll - Bank of England monetary policy outlook for DecemberAt the Nov. 3 meeting Governor Andrew Bailey told investors, who were pricing in a peak around 4.70%, their rate hike bets looked too big. The United States Federal Reserve has made four consecutive 75 basis point increases but was expected to shift down the pace to a 50 basis point move next month.
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